The European issue is different.

There are plenty of vehicles to express market sentiment: equities, bonds, CDs, and FX. And yet, as the crisis drags on and on, none of these markets is expressing its depth and breadth. In fact, the Euro is rising off the early October low (1.3146) after a long range-bound summer. The Euro could even surpass the 200-day moving average around 1.4090; if it does, it could retest the May 4 high at 1.4940.

To understand a rising Euro as Europe falls deeper into crisis, you have to accept the basic perversity of markets.  Markets in general and the FX market in particular are perfectly willing to accept the right way to trade may have nothing to do with correct analysis — it is wiser to trade with the crowd and make gains than to have brilliant analysis and lose money.